ALL ISSUES  |  ISSUE 05

How the Alberta NDP Lost the Advantage — and How it Can Win it Back

By Shannon Phillips

Originally published on April 26, 2026 in issue 05 of Forward Weekly

Since mid-2025, Albertans have been swimming through a tsunami of radical change implemented by the UCP. Danielle Smith’s government has brought in unprecedented health-care and school privatization, and extended state involvement into individual liberties from childhood to end-of-life. Charter-protected legal and equality rights, the rule of law, judicial independence and orderly labour relations are now a thing of the past, while the guardrails of a functioning liberal democracy are subsumed to a far-right culture war. Because of the past year’s legislative changes, Alberta citizens now have fewer rights than anywhere else in the country.

A government this radical should be easier to oppose. Yet many Albertans have come to see the Alberta NDP as nowhere to be found since the leadership change. As Max Fawcett of the National Observer put it, “Nenshi is sleepwalking his party into defeat.” While I wouldn’t go that far, it isn’t an unfair critique of a party that has struggled to capitalize on the UCP’s excesses, including before the leadership change. The Alberta NDP has been unable to crack the 40 per cent line since early 2024. To compete for power, the party needs to be in the mid-forties and leading in the province’s two major cities. Yet for much of the past two years, the New Democrats have trailed by double digits.

The decision to move resources away from research meant the Alberta NDP was stuck responding to events, rather than digging up dirt on a government that was increasingly shameless in waste and entitlement.

I’ve observed two foundational errors that led to the unhelpful narrative that the New Democrats are nowhere in the public discourse. The first has to do with research, which is less about doing highminded modelling to back public policy alternatives and more about digging. That means keeping a watchful eye on every move made across the Government of Alberta from procurement and accounting standards to expenses. And not just for UCP electeds or the core civil service — you must do it across the entirety of Crown entities and agencies.

When the leadership of the Alberta NDP changed, a lot of this work was inexplicably jettisoned – ostensibly because this was the way the Notley Opposition did things. The trouble is that approach isn’t proprietary to Rachel – it’s the bread and butter of any Official Opposition of any party. It’s also the reason the Official Opposition gets a budget. It’s core to the democratic function of an opposition and a public expectation. 

The decision to move resources away from research meant the Alberta NDP was stuck responding to events, rather than digging up dirt on a government that was increasingly shameless in waste and entitlement. For months, the party was unable to add anything to stories of the day or pile on to scandals with new information. For example, a multimillion-dollar health care procurement scandal — broken by the Globe and Mail with the sordid details therefore stuck behind a paywall – saw the party add nothing except outrage and the pithy moniker “Corrupt Care.” Health care remains the UCP’s key vulnerability.

Any day an Official Opposition can fully own an issue where they agree with at least two-thirds of the electorate — and more to the point, an issue that divides their opponent — is a good day.

The good news is the party’s latest moves are precisely targeted at rectifying those foundational mistakes. Recent opposition research led to uncovering hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of undisclosed personal gifts (private flights, hotels) from a foreign government (Saudi Arabia) to the Premier and her staff. The scandal broke through. People talked about it. Mojo rediscovered, thanks to research.

The second foundational mistake occurred last summer, when the New Democrats made the puzzling decision to sit out the Forever Canadian petition project. MLAs could have spent last summer working alongside thousands of highly motivated volunteers — interacting with hundreds of thousands of Albertans alarmed enough at Danielle Smith’s separatism to sign a petition. Instead, the Opposition was stuck tiptoeing around the whole project. 

The decision to take a pass on the Forever Canadian initiative was a classic case of overthinking. I cut my teeth in politics almost three decades ago, working in Opposition in the Ralph Klein years. Ralph had a saying: “See a parade, get in front of it.” Sometimes politics is as simple as that.

That’s why the New Democrats launching their own anti-separation campaign filled me with hope. Canadian unity is a sentiment held by at least 70 percent of Albertans, according to Angus Reid and Leger polls. The sentiment is split among UCP voters. Any day an Official Opposition can fully own an issue where they agree with at least two-thirds of the electorate — and more to the point, an issue that divides their opponent — is a good day.

It took time for the New Democrats to find their feet in the post-Notley era. There’s no doubt that the caution and the quiet have resulted in a more brazen UCP, with a more radical agenda. One can draw a straight line between the Opposition’s low polling numbers and stalled momentum and the UCP acting as if there are no checks on their power. It may be that the New Democrats’ newfound vigour and tactics are well-timed to gather the energy they need for the next election — less than a year away.